Can Islanders improve the penalty kill? Is this a playoff team? Five burning questions (2024)

On the surface this summer sure looked like Same Old Isles. But there are some changes to this team, notably with Patrick Roy embarking on his first full season behind the bench.

A lot needs to change for the Islanders to be a real contender. But as we outline below, enough may have changed — a few targeted signings, a philosophy change that didn’t have time to fully take hold, a rejuvenated Ilya Sorokin — to help this team rise above the Metro Division morass.

Here’s some questions and some answers as we head toward the start of development camp next week and then the full training camp in two weeks.

What will Patrick Roy be able to do in his first Islanders training camp?

Staple: Of the things Islanders fans and players learned about Roy in his half a season on the job, one of them is that he’s a tinkerer. You don’t look at a Hall of Fame player behind the bench and automatically think, “That guy has some interesting ideas about the game.” Roy is different — from his immediate decision to change the team’s defensive-zone structure to putting Casey Cizikas on the top line in the postseason, Roy has a clear vision for what will work best.

And now he’s had a full offseason with very few roster additions and subtractions to refine it. That should benefit this group. Many of them were here in the summer of 2018, when Barry Trotz came in and changed the way the team played to decent success. So it can work again, in theory.

Baugh: As you said, Arthur, the Islanders players got a look at Roy’s energy, coaching style and willingness to tinker during their time together last year. Having a bit more comfort — both the players with Roy and Roy with the players — should benefit everyone involved. The last time Roy had a full first season with an NHL club, the Avalanche won 52 games and Roy got the Jack Adams. That’s almost certainly too big an ask for this Islanders roster, but if Roy is the coach Lou Lamoriello thinks he is, then the group should get a boost with a full, normal season together.

Do they have a strong enough forward group?

Baugh: The Islanders tweaked their forward group a bit this offseason, adding Anthony Duclair and Maxim Tsyplakov. The team knows what it can expect from Duclair: he’s proven himself as a solid complementary top-six wing in the NHL. Tsyplakov, on the other hand, is more of a mystery. The 25-year-old has never played an NHL game but had 31 goals in the KHL last season. That’s a good sign for the Islanders, but it’s hard to judge how well players’ games will translate between the KHL and NHL. If he can be a reliable scorer for New York, its forward group all of a sudden looks much more complete.

Staple: Cal Clutterbuck is likely gone so the bottom six, typically the spiritual leaders of recent Isles teams, will look different. Kyle MacLean could have a more important role and the Islanders will need bounce-back seasons from Anders Lee and JG Pageau, likely as part of a third line with Simon Holmstrom.

Tsyplakov is the key for me. If he’s as advertised and can keep up with the NHL game on the second line with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, this team could have a pretty balanced attack, and a younger group at that.

What does a bounce-back season from Ilya Sorokin look like?

Baugh: At his best, Sorokin is a ceiling raiser for the Islanders. He was the Vezina runner-up in 2022-23, when he had a .924 save percentage, and had a .925 the year before. If he’s playing like that, the Islanders become a team others don’t want to face in the playoffs. Great goalies can push stronger teams to the brink.

Sorokin saved 8.54 goals above expected in 2023-24, per Evolving Hockey, which was down from a league-best 51.36 in 2022-23. If he can get back to that form, the Islanders’ odds of making it back to the playoffs increase drastically. Plus it will mean Roy won’t have to lean as heavily on Semyon Varlamov, who played well last year but is now 36.

Staple: There is only one path to success this season for the Isles and it runs through the crease with Sorokin. Yes, the Islanders got younger and a bit more skilled up front; yes, they are counting on better health from their defense. But even with those factors, No. 30 is the one who can make the Islanders stand out from the bottom two-thirds of the Metro.

As you showed with the GSAx numbers the last two years, Sorokin performing even half as well as he did in 2022-23 would mean a huge recovery from last season.

How do they fix the league’s worst penalty kill?

Baugh: The penalty kill did not improve after the Islanders’ midseason coaching change, going from a 73 percent success rate in 45 games under Lambert to 69.1 percent in 37 games under Roy. But Roy and his staff getting a full offseason to refine the system should help.

The personnel, though, will largely be the same. Ten of the team’s top 11 most frequent penalty killers from last season will be back, with Clutterbuck being the lone player not on the current roster. So Roy will have to find solutions to the kill without new faces.

Staple: Some fresh sets of eyes will help for starters, between Roy, assistant Benoit Desrosiers and new assistant coach Tommy Albelin. When the Islanders PK was dead last in the league in 2017-18, Trotz arrived and made defense at 5v5 and on the PK a point of emphasis, and the Isles improved to 17th the following season.

Fresh legs will help too. The Clutterbuck-Cizikas PK forward pair has been a mainstay; will it be Cizikas-Palmieri now? Or perhaps Roy will give Holmstrom and/or MacLean bigger roles. Scott Mayfield, who has been the team’s top penalty killer in time on ice for three of the last four seasons, not playing on one leg should improve matters too. That’s got to count as fresh, even for a 31-year-old.

Is this a legitimate playoff team heading into training camp?

Staple: I say yes, if for no other reason than this one: the Metro kinda stinks. The Rangers still look like the class of the division, the Devils should bounce back … and then it’s an awful lot of mediocrity or worse. The Hurricanes don’t have the same luster around them, the Penguins are sinking, the Caps are an oddity and the Flyers and Blue Jackets seem headed for the cellar.

That leaves a big opening for the Islanders, especially if they get out of the gate strong. This isn’t a Stanley Cup contender by any means but with all the adjustments they’ve made and a full year of Roy, this team sure seems good enough to get into the playoffs without much difficulty.

Baugh: The Islanders roster is largely the same as last year’s playoff club, but there will be other teams in the East vying for spots. New Jersey should be better this year, and Detroit could be too. A flawed Washington team made the playoffs last year, then made some offseason additions. Entering camp, the Islanders have a shot to make the postseason for a third consecutive year, but it’s far from a guarantee. They’ll be in contention with a crowded group of teams in the East.

(Photo of Patrick Roy: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)